As world leaders prepare to gather in Brazil for COP30, a new major study from Siemens reveals geopolitics is reshaping infrastructure strategy, with national energy security overtaking global climate cooperation as the primary driver of the energy transition. The Siemens Infrastructure Transition Monitor 2025 reveals senior leaders believe a resilient energy supply should be the top governmental priority among infrastructure transition goals – up from third place in 2023. Meanwhile, national energy independence and the proactive management of climate risks have seen the most significant growth in priority.
Rising global instability is intensifying market and supply chain volatility. To mitigate the use of energy as a geopolitical tool, governments are prioritizing security, independence, and preparedness alongside climate mitigation.
The report, based on a global survey of 1,400 senior executives and government representatives in 19 countries, highlights a shift: from a multilateral vision of clean energy to one increasingly centered on sovereign resilience and regional production. With mounting pressure on public and private energy systems amid overlapping climate, geopolitical, and market challenges, it finds that energy resilience is now seen as a critical enabler of the clean energy transition – not a trade-off against it.
Mr. Matthias Rebellius, Managing Board Member of Siemens AG and CEO of Smart Infrastructure.
The infrastructure transition is entering a new phase whereby national goals of energy security are overtaking global collaboration on decarbonization. As systems face mounting climate and energy disruptions, resilience is no longer optional – AI, technology, and digitalization are now critical to this shift. They can empower organizations and governments to manage the complexities of renewable-based systems, ensure reliability, and accelerate the clean energy transition smarter and more sustainably,” said Mr. Matthias Rebellius, Managing Board Member of Siemens AG and CEO of Smart Infrastructure.
From global transition to national resilience
Over three in five (62%) respondents believe future energy systems will rely more on local or regional production than global trade, with key enablers including renewable integration, storage readiness, and advanced grid systems. Already, over half say resilience (53%) and energy independence (52%) are reaching maturity or are advanced within their countries – signaling a shift in infrastructure priorities is already underway.
Confidence in climate targets is declining
With resilience and energy security now taking precedence, confidence in achieving global climate goals is starting to fall. More than half (57%) of global executives expect increased investment in fossil fuels over the next two years, and just 37% of businesses now believe they will meet their 2030 decarbonization targets – down from 44% in 2023.
A wake-up call before COP30
With confidence in climate goals declining and 2026 strategies in development, the report highlights that failure to embed resilience into energy planning risks both economic and environmental fallout. At a time when governments are recalibrating net zero strategies alongside welfare and growth agendas, Siemens underscores that through grid investment and digital innovation, progress towards climate commitments as well as energy resilience can be accelerated.
Artificial Intelligence will accelerate the transition
As national energy strategies evolve, digital technologies remain at the heart of the infrastructure transition. Digitalization ranks as the second most important factor in accelerating the clean energy transition for industries – just behind expanding energy storage – with AI expected to have the greatest positive impact. Respondents believe that AI is helping to make critical infrastructure more resilient (66%) and report that their organizations are using AI to help decarbonize their operations (59%).
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